We decided to focus on the 3 main (or most used) seasonal models. The jet stream is a large and powerful stream of air (wind) at around 8-11km (5-7mi) altitude. Current analysis shows the ocean temperature anomalies and the now quite extensive colder-than-normal area in the tropical pacific. Below is an image which shows a temperature pattern after a stratospheric warming event, blocking the arctic regions, and releasing cold air into the mid-latitudes. Drier-than-average conditions are most likely for Louisiana, parts of Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas and Oklahoma as well areas of northern and central California.
The tropical trade winds (the easterly winds that circle the Earth near the equator) usually initiate or stop a certain phase, as they mix the ocean surface and alter the ocean currents. This is the situation we have mentioned before. But this is not a typical positive NAO setup, and it can be broken in-between. Most likely if the high-pressure system in the central Atlantic can crawl further up north, blocking the flow and creating a more northerly flow into Europe. We can see that the strongest jet stream was positioned over the North Atlantic, extending directly over the British Isles and into Scandinavia. Last winter, the early projections were surprisingly good for the long-range they were forecasting (3-6 months ahead). It has brought very mild and stormy conditions to the British Isles and Scandinavia, while the rest of Europe was mostly drier and warmer, with a lower number of cold fronts. The colder air is more easily accessible to the northern United States, which also shows to have an increased snowfall potential during La Nina years. The image below shows the ocean analysis from the beginning of August. The British Isles and Scandinavia could have more unsettled winter, as the jet stream positions over these regions, bringing behind more stormy weather. This is not to say that there will be no cold air outbreaks, just that they are less frequent. The Winter 2020 Economic Forecast projects that the European economy is set to continue on a path of steady, moderate growth. The image below shows all the ENSO regions. Anywhere. The problem is that the final outcome is far more unpredictable in the Euro-Atlantic zone, than over North America, which is under a more direct influence. This winter forecast is a “First look” edition, which means we talk about the early winter projections and early trends. The warmer anomaly means that the frequency is still not high enough to prevail on the 3-month average. For example, the AO influences the number of arctic air masses that intrude into the U.S., but its predictability is limited to a couple weeks. In the absence of El Nino or La Nina, long-term trends become a key predictor for the outlook, while other climate patterns, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation (AO), will likely play a larger role in determining winter weather. The Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and the western Great Lakes have equal chances for below-, near- or above-average temperatures. (NOAA Climate.gov). AccuWeather just released its annual weather forecast for winter 2020-2021 and experts are predicting that an "overall mild winter is possible" for much of the United States. North America winter forecast looks fairly solid to be a classical La Nina type winter.

This time, the temperature forecast corresponds to the pressure pattern forecast.

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