Drought 2002 in Colorado—an unprecedented drought or a routine drought?

1). Sign-up for our Free Colorado newsletter. The drought that took hold in Colorado this summer is getting worse. [p��A|�Og���-���R��;��ʢ������ �h�.�aF���#��.2�b0����^t��5��=����mU����2 ��hE�)��Hd � The medieval warming is, however, markedly exceeded by late 20th and early 21st century warming, as temperatures now stand more than 0.8 °C above the 1850–2006 mean (32).

temperature. Even without the anticipated increased warming in the 21st century, droughts of the magnitude of the medieval droughts would present enormous challenges to water management agencies. 2020, East Troublesome, 266 square miles (as of Oct. 23), 7. Error! Activity 4 - Elaborate (25 minutes) Drought Resilience Strategies. Activity 5- Evaluate (50 minutes) The Future of Drought.

Since 2000, the state has experienced four periods of exceptional (D4) drought lasting over six months, with the longest duration of drought (. 2 on the list at about 265 square miles.

This has now expanded to encompass the entire state. The causes of past and future drought will not be identical but warm droughts, inferred from paleoclimatic records, demonstrate the plausibility of extensive, severe droughts, provide a long-term perspective on the ongoing drought conditions in the Southwest, and suggest the need for regional sustainability planning for the future.

Light Shading indicates medieval period, Dark Shading indicates mid-1100s period. Instrumental records and paleoclimatic evidence for past prolonged drought in the Southwest that coincide with elevated temperatures can be assessed to provide insights on temperature-drought relations and to develop worst-case scenarios for the future. Clim.


An effort has been made to document the degree to which global and hemispheric temperatures were elevated at this time using a wide variety of proxy records, and with an emphasis on understanding the low-frequency component of variability (1, 30, 31).

S2). Photo Credit: Bob Nichols, USDA. The 21st century drought has lasted about a decade so far, whereas the 12th century medieval drought persisted with an extent and severity displayed in the worst-case decade, 1146–1155, for two decades, 1140–1159.
54–58). The Colorado River reconstruction also highlights the exceptional persistence of medieval drought. At multidecadal and longer timescales, evidence from treeline, glacier, and chironomid studies suggests southwestern North America and adjacent regions experienced elevated temperatures on the order of 1 °C or less above long-term means during some or all of the medieval period (refs. The paleoclimatic record is invaluable for documenting the range of drought variability over the past and expanding the scope of worst-case scenarios. The sector tabs on the Story Map feature a map showing the location and distribution of risk across the state as well as statistics relevant to that sector. Data published by the US Drought Monitor shows a slight uptick in drought compared to last week when 99.3 percent of the state was experiencing drought.

A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America. The expansion of the region dominated by subtropical high pressure, an anthropogenic influence on drought extent (2), will need to be considered on top of naturally occurring forcings in the anticipation of future droughts.

As far as we know, there is no reason why droughts of the duration, severity, and spatial extent experienced in the medieval period could not occur in the future. 3B and 4). While technology has increased our ability to deal with drought, it still causes significant economic damage in the United States today.

Along with evidence for multiyear periods of enhanced temperatures approaching 1.0 °C during some intervals of the medieval period, records also indicate periods of normal to below average temperatures at other intervals (Figure 2D). 1 0 obj << /Creator /CreationDate (D:20000215103419) /Title /Author /Producer (Acrobat PDFWriter 4.0 for Windows NT) /ModDate (D:20000215111558-07'00') >> endobj 2 0 obj [ /PDF /Text /ImageB /ImageC /ImageI ] endobj 3 0 obj << /Pages 121 0 R /Type /Catalog >> endobj 4 0 obj << /Type /Page /Parent 5 0 R /Resources << /Font << /F0 6 0 R /F1 10 0 R >> /ProcSet 2 0 R >> /Contents 8 0 R >> endobj 5 0 obj << /Kids [ 4 0 R 12 0 R 19 0 R 24 0 R 35 0 R 42 0 R ] /Count 6 /Type /Pages /Parent 121 0 R >> endobj 6 0 obj << /Type /Font /Subtype /TrueType /Name /F0 /BaseFont /TimesNewRoman,Bold /FirstChar 32 /LastChar 255 /Widths [ 250 333 555 500 500 1000 833 278 333 333 500 570 250 333 250 278 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 500 333 333 570 570 570 500 930 722 667 722 722 667 611 778 778 389 500 778 667 944 722 778 611 778 722 556 667 722 722 1000 722 722 667 333 278 333 581 500 333 500 556 444 556 444 333 500 556 278 333 556 278 833 556 500 556 556 444 389 333 556 500 722 500 500 444 394 220 394 520 778 500 778 333 500 500 1000 500 500 333 1000 556 333 1000 778 667 778 778 333 333 500 500 350 500 1000 333 1000 389 333 722 778 444 722 250 333 500 500 500 500 220 500 333 747 300 500 570 333 747 500 400 549 300 300 333 576 540 250 333 300 330 500 750 750 750 500 722 722 722 722 722 722 1000 722 667 667 667 667 389 389 389 389 722 722 778 778 778 778 778 570 778 722 722 722 722 722 611 556 500 500 500 500 500 500 722 444 444 444 444 444 278 278 278 278 500 556 500 500 500 500 500 549 500 556 556 556 556 500 556 500 ] /Encoding /WinAnsiEncoding /FontDescriptor 7 0 R >> endobj 7 0 obj << /Type /FontDescriptor /FontName /TimesNewRoman,Bold /Flags 16418 /FontBBox [ -250 -216 1163 1000 ] /MissingWidth 323 /StemV 136 /StemH 136 /ItalicAngle 0 /CapHeight 891 /XHeight 446 /Ascent 891 /Descent -216 /Leading 149 /MaxWidth 969 /AvgWidth 427 >> endobj 8 0 obj << /Length 9 0 R /Filter /FlateDecode >> stream Activity 2 – Explore (45 minutes) Investigating Drought Conditions. There was an error processing your request. seasonal temperature anomalies. Composite maps of summer PDSI. This article contains supporting information online at www.pnas.org/cgi/content/full/0911197107/DCSupplemental. It should be noted that records of past temperature for the Southwest are still limited, and this assessment would be strengthened with additional paleoclimatic data for this region. Fig 1. Records collectively suggest a broader range of hydroclimatic variability than contained in instrumental records, particularly with respect to drought extent, duration, and severity. The recent drought, thus far, pales hydrologically in comparison to the worst-case drought documented in the medieval period in both spatial extent (Fig. National Drought Mitigation Center 3) and duration. Students begin with an exploration of how drought is measured, and then are divided into expert groups to analyze several datasets of the factors that led to drought in April 2013.

The 275 square-mile Mullen Fire is also burning partly in Colorado, though most of it is in Wyoming. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate change 2007: Synthesis report, summary for policymakers, Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America, Greenhouse warming and the 21st century hydroclimate of southwestern North America, Climate warming and 21st-century drought in southwestern North America, Megadroughts in North America: Placing IPCC projections of hydroclimatic change in a long-term paleoclimate context, Final environmental impact statement and habitat conservation plan for the lower Colorado River multi-species conservation program, Decision making under uncertainty: Shortage, stakeholders and modeling in the Colorado River basin, Indian water rights settlements and water management innovations: The role of the Arizona Water Settlements Act, Water resources planning and management at the Salt River Project, Arizona, USA, Why sustainability is not a four-letter word, Factors in the initiation, perpetuation and termination of drought, Dependence of extreme daily maximum temperatures on antecedent soil moisture in the contiguous United States during summer, Reconstructed temperature and precipitation on a millennial timescale from tree rings in the southern Colorado Plateau, USA, Some meteorological aspects of drought with special reference to the summers of 1952–54 over the United States, Climate and droughts, in Paulson RW, Chase EB, Roberts RS, and Moody DW, Compilers, National Water Summary 1988–89—Hydrologic Events and Floods and Droughts, A knowledge-based approach to the statistical mapping of climate, Patterns and mechanisms of twentieth century climate change, Widening of the tropical belt in a changing climate, 2000 years of drought variability in the central United States, Tropical Pacific—mid-latitude teleconnections in medieval times, Tree-ring reconstructed megadroughts over North America since A.D. 1300, Tree-ring data document 16th century megadrought over North America, Long-term aridity changes in the Western United States, Extreme and persistent drought in California and Patagonia during medieval time, Reconstructing the Mediaeval low stands of Mono Lake, Sierra Nevada, California, USA, The early medieval warm epoch and its sequel, Surface Temperature Reconstructions for the Last 2,000 Years, Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia, North American Droughts of the mid-to-late Nineteenth Century: A history, simulation and implication for mediaeval drought, North American drought: Reconstructions, causes, and consequences, Tropical Pacific forcing of North American medieval megadroughts: Testing the concept with an atmosphere model forced by coral reconstructed SSTs, Atlantic and Pacific SST influences on Medieval drought in North America simulated by the Community Atmospheric Model, The changing character of climate, drought, and the seasons on the southwestern USA, Volcanic and solar forcing of the tropical Pacific over the past 1,000 years, Sacramento River flow reconstructed to A.D. 869 from tree rings, Medieval drought in the upper Colorado River basin, Southern California and the perfect drought: Simultaneous prolonged drought in Southern California and the Sacramento and Colorado River systems, Impacts of climate variability on forests, Extremes of moisture availability reconstructed from tree-rings from recent millennia in the Great Basin of Western North America, A bimillennial-length tree-ring reconstruction of precipitation for the Tavaputs Plateau, Northeastern Utah, Climate and the Dolores River Anasazi: A paleoenvironmental reconstruction from a 10,000-year pollen record, La Plata Mountains, Southwestern Colorado, A warm and wet Little Climatic Optimum and a cold and dry Little Ice Age in the Southern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A, The correlation of summer precipitation in the Southwestern U.S.A. with isotopic records of solar activity during the medieval warm period. It's an unprecedented opportunity to leverage diverse, real-world data sources. An email has been sent to with a link to confirm list signup. Proxy records that better reflect low-frequency temperature variability, such as lake sediments and treeline changes, suggest that warmth was underestimated by the tree-ring reconstructions of annual temperature for the Colorado Plateau. Medieval Drought and Temperatures in Southwestern North America, Placing the Current 21st Century Drought in a Medieval Context, Opinion: A risk–benefit framework for human research during the COVID-19 pandemic, Core Concept: The pandemic is prompting widespread use—and misuse—of real-world data, Volcanic eruption’s effects on Roman Republic. "a ��{���$R��&=)\ZE�%mx��+Qii�rf�Dp�����H�Ϙ@��(�εO`42�1�q8_�A���qy� About 700 square miles of wildfires are burning in Colorado, contributing to the 940 square miles  set ablaze in the state since July 31. Students research drought mitigation and resilience strategies and create a social media post advertising the strategy.

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